ULI ranks Denver among top 10 real estate markets

For Immediate Release On: 11/3/2008

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The Urban Land Institute named metro Denver one of its top 10 real estate markets to watch next year, in its Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2009 report released Oct. 21.

The report, which is based on the insights and predictions of real estate experts nationwide, cited this market’s pluses as a major federal government presence that “should buffer job losses,” as well as steady population growth. Greater diversification of industries in the metro area and a mass transit system that “should pay future dividends” also are positives for Denver-area real estate, the report said.

Metro Denver also made last year’s Emerging Trends top six markets to watch for 2008.

The top five markets named in the 2009 ULI report were Seattle, San Francisco, Washington, D.C., New York and Los Angeles.

Other top 10 markets, in addition to metro Denver, included Houston, Boston, Dallas and Chicago.

The 30-year-old Emerging Trends report is the oldest industry outlook for real estate and land use in the nation, according to the ULI. The land group collaborates with accounting firm PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP on the study, and polls more than 600 real estate experts across the country. Those experts include investors, developers, lenders, brokers and consultants.

Experts cited in the 2009 Emerging Trends report expect the country’s real estate and financial markets to hit bottom next year.

Those markets are expected to flounder for much of 2010, with ongoing declines in property values, more foreclosures and “a limping economy that will continue to crimp property cash flows,” the report said. Real estate values could drop 15 percent to 20 percent from their mid-2007 peak.

“Only when property financing gets restructured will pricing recorrect, so we can find the floor, and this transition could wipe out companies and people,” one respondent said in the report.

Those interviewed for the ULI report generally believe financial institutions will continue to be pressured to move bad loans off their balance sheets, and will do that via auctions. Investors will be discouraged until that “bloodletting” ends, the report said. When investors start buying again, cash and buyers with low leverage will be “king,” banks will impose tougher lending guidelines and commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) will be popular again in a more regulated form.

One silver lining for the real estate market, according to the report, is that smart investors will be able to capitalize on the inevitable economic recovery, which could come as early as 2010. “Money will be made on riding markets back to recovery and releasing properties, not on … financing structures,” the report said.

Based in Washington, D.C., the ULI is a nonprofit group that advocates for responsible land use, and to create and sustain “thriving” communities worldwide. The group’s local branch, ULI Colorado of Denver, is one of its largest district councils.

About Trenka & Associates: Trenka & Associates is one of Downtown Denver's leading Real Estate Companies. http://www.condosandlofts.com

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